Paying attention to where players are being drafted — looking at ADP, essentially — has become an essential tool in draft prep. But zooming in with a virtual microscope to catch the trends of the market moving may ultimately be more important. In this first edition of the ADP Report (or market movers, or stock up/stock down — whichever name you want to call it), we divided ADP up between drafts from mid-June and drafts from mid-July. Here’s all the data you need to get an early indication of who is rising and who is falling.

Let’s start with who’s been moving up and down in ADP

Players on the move

We compared NFFC ADP from June 15 to July 15 with more recent ADP of July 16 to July 31. Here are the players making the biggest moves. 

Biggest ADP drops

Player ADP (7/31) ADP (7/15) Difference

Pruitt, MyCole

282.32

183.52

98.8

Falcons, Atlanta DST

284.08

238.21

45.87

Knox, Dawson

210.78

182.43

28.35

Stroud, C.J.

220.88

195.9

24.98

Ridder, Desmond

224.04

200.1

23.94

Abanikanda, Israel

247.64

225.4

22.24

Jones, Mac

233.31

211.37

21.94

Stafford, Matthew

178.85

157.82

21.03

Pickett, Kenny

195.99

175.52

20.47

Young, Bryce

196.63

177.24

19.39

Hyatt, Jalin

205.91

187.71

18.2

Lance, Trey

254.57

236.87

17.7

Carr, Derek

151.97

135.86

16.11

Downs, Josh

253.68

237.9

15.78

Garoppolo, Jimmy

237.11

222.11

15

ADP biggest risers

Player ADP (7/31) ADP (7/15) Difference

Purdy, Brock

195.3

283.78

-88.48

Falcons, Atlanta Team Kicker

233.64

281.86

-48.22

White, Zamir

182.75

225.91

-43.16

James, Richie

228.41

265.11

-36.7

Fant, Noah

252.1

285.92

-33.82

Gray, Eric

267.23

300.8

-33.57

Marshall, Terrace

218.12

242.67

-24.55

Moss, Zack

271.87

292.99

-21.12

Prince, Deneric

274.98

295.5

-20.52

Parker, DeVante

246.85

267.16

-20.31

Rice, Rashee

155.73

176.03

-20.3

Patrick, Tim

227.38

246.91

-19.53

Reynolds, Josh

273.79

292.59

-18.8

Moore, Skyy

102.67

120.54

-17.87

Rodgers, Amari

282.33

299.99

-17.66

New entries: Brandon Bolden (282.42), P.J. Walker (284.16), Malik Willis (282.06)

Significant drops in the Top 100: Dalvin Cook (48.65 to 61.63), Treylon Burks (75.85 to 87.77)

So…

Dalvin Cook is dropping because he still hasn’t signed with a team, and one would assume as we get closer, Cook is going to find himself in a backfield share that would significantly lessen his fantasy value. There’s always a chance he goes somewhere and some crazy move like the release of Leonard Fournette will allow him to get the lion’s share of the carries, but as the preseason games get closer, expect Cook’s ADP to freefall… Brock Purdy‘s big move up ADP charts comes from a series of positive reports on his return from injury. To see is to believe, but Inside Injuries’ Greg Scholz wrote back in June that Purdy was “expected to resume throwing in June, with the team hoping he’ll be ready for training camp.” There are still a few obstacles in his way — arm fatigue, compensation soreness to his shoulder and maybe oblique, Sam Darnold could still win the starting job — but if Purdy can successfully fend all those off, his ADP will likely continue to climb…. Skyy Moore was a preseason darling last year, but he has been a training camp star so far, making dazzling catches and earning compliments from his quarterback. Moore had already moved up the depth chart thanks to the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster and now an injury to Kadarius Toney, but he seems to be responding in a fashion slightly more spectacular than we saw last season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling maybe (MAYBE) stands in his way, but if Moore continues to show rapport with Mahomes, he could emerge as a fantasy stud as the No. 1 wide receiver option in a pass-happy offense… Before his injury on Monday, Tim Patrick was rising. Expect Courtland Sutton (going around pick 96 since June 15) to pick up some of that slack. My guess is he’s around pick 80 in two weeks… Brandon Bolden is worth keeping an eye on. He just snuck into the end of NFFC drafts likely due to the Josh Jacobs situation. Zamir White is the trendy pick (he’s one of the biggest jumpers in ADP), but Bolden knows the McDaniels system from his days with the Patriots. That didn’t translate to much last year, but if Jacobs holds out or gets injured, it’ll be interesting to see who McDaniels turns to as his new No. 1.

Check out our 2023 fantasy football draft kit — everything you need, from rankings to a customizable cheat sheet (and a lot more)


Now let’s look a little more closely at some of the best values we’ve found during the early off-season portion of drafts. In other words, these are the guys who I think will be featured in future columns as “moving up.”

(The ADP data is the composite of several platforms found on Fantasy Pros and a full point PPR league is being used.)

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (ADP QB 21, Pick 145)

We know about the down season Stafford had in 2022.

In nine games during an injury shortened season, Stafford only threw for 2,087 yards with 10 TD and eight INT. The 231.8 yards/game average is a full 40 yards lower than his career average of 272.7 yards/game.

With his elbow fully healed and top WR Cooper Kupp also back, a return to numbers closer to his 2021 season (4,886 yards, 41 TD and 17 INT) is more likely than another season of mediocrity for the potential Hall of Famer.

Along with Kupp, Van Jefferson will be called upon to take a step forward after the team struggled to a 5-12 record in 2022.

While Stafford, the No. 1 selection in the 2009 draft, is getting older, longevity seems to be a strength of the QB position in today’s NFL. Especially with the rules being made to protect them. Drew Brees played until he was 40 and Tom Brady went to 45. Stafford could be another of those QBs who plays until they are 40, meaning he has a good four or five seasons left. To see him going as the QB 21 after rookies Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young is a bit ridiculous. Even I, as a blind guy, can see the potential of the two rookies. But neither of them has Cooper Kupp to throw to and both will be on teams who will rely more on the run game than they will on the pass game.

Stafford should finish as a Top 12 QB again this season. The fact you can get him right now as QB 21 is wonderful value and he is certainly worth the wager for a 13th round draft selection.

Running Back

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (ADP: RB 16, Pick 41)

Jones is perennially undervalued. All he does is provide solid production in both the run and pass games, yet fantasy managers love taking other backs ahead of him.

As the No. 16 running back, going off the board in the middle of the fourth round, Jones is again a value.

Jones, who will be counted on more with new QB Jordan Love taking over for Aaron Rodgers, is being drafted a full 19 picks after Tony Pollard, who is coming off a serious injury suffered in the playoffs against San Francisco. Jones is also going off boards after the likes of Breece Hall, who is coming off an ACL injury, and Jahmyr Gibbs, a rookie who will be sharing time in Detroit with David Montgomery.

In 2022, Jones ran the ball 213 times for 1,121 yards and also caught 59 passes for 395 yards and 5 receiving TDs. During his career, he has been a reliable pass catcher with 1,843 career receiving yards and 17 career TD on 242 catches in 86 regular season games for the Packers.

While Pollard and Gibbs could have decent upside, Jones has a much higher floor and, taking out any injury, Jones will finish higher than them in the fantasy RB ranks for 2023. Getting him in the middle of the fourth round will allow you to get a solid RB1 at the price of an RB2 while filling up your team with elite wide receivers in the first two rounds, and it will also allow you to take a top tier QB if you so desire.

Jones is going to rise into the Top 12 by the time the 2023 season starts. So, if you can get him early in your drafts now, you will have a head start on the rest of your opponent and league mates.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks,(ADP: WR 28 Pick 70)

While DK Metcalf and his incredible physique get all the attention, all Lockett does is make plays for whichever quarterback is throwing him passes.

Despite Lockett being a solid receiver, and despite Calvin Ridley going to a new team and a year long suspension, Ridley is still being drafted as WR 19 in the middle of the third-round while Lockett is going off the board a full three rounds later as the consensus 10th pick of Round 6.

Teammate DK Metcalf, drafted as the WR 15 at pick 34, could be more talented than Lockett, but with the savings you get by drafting Lockett, I would much rather wait on a Seattle wide receiver and go with the steady Lockett over the boom or bust Metcalf.

In 2022, Metcalf finished the regular season with 90 receptions for 1,048 yards and 6 TDs in 17 games. In 16 games, Lockett compiled 84 receptions for 1,033 yards and 9 TDs. This means that, in a full point PPR league, Lockett finished with more fantasy points than the higher drafted Metcalf.

Lockett, at 30, is on the older side for an elite receiver. But with Geno Smith trusting him, and Lockett being the TD producer in the pass offense, he, not Metcalf, is the Seattle receiver to draft coming into he 2023 fantasy season. The fact you can take him in the sixth round as your WR2 or 3 makes him a screaming value. A scream you will be able to hear over the manager next to you who misses out on him as you hit the draft button.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki, New England Patriots, ADP TE 21 Pick 187

After a lost season in which Tua Tagovailoa was injured for the Dolphins, Gesicki will take his talents out of South Beach and to the south end of New England for the rival Patriots. Since being drafted in the second round in 2018 out of Penn State, the athletic Gesicki has proven two things. He knows how to run routes and catch the ball, and he has no inclination or ability to block anyone — much like Evan Engram, but I digress.

Despite only 32 receptions in 17 games in 2022, in 81 career games he has compiled a total of 231 receptions for 2,617 yards and 18 TDs. Coming into New England, with a team desperate to find offensive weapons, Gesicki will be used as an important checkdown for Mac Jones as he attempts to get back to his rookie form of 2021.

Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor are both gone and with just JuJu Smith-Schuster coming into pair with DeVante Parker, the receivers group will be a bit thin. This will allow Gesicki to get back above the 60-reception mark for an offense that needs his talent.

TE is a position in which you either want one of the top three, or you want to wait until the end of your fantasy draft. Going as pick 187, which places him as the seventh pick in the 16th round, he will likely not be drafted in many of your drafts. This means after getting the D/ST and kicker you desire, you can come back with the final pick of your draft and grab Gesicki as your TE. While he will never take the No. 1 spot from Travis Kelce, you also will not be forced to use a top six pick in the first round to get him. And if he does become the safety blanket for a struggling Patriots offense in 2023, he does have the ability to finish in the Top 5 at the position. What more can you ask for with such a low draft pick?

(Top photo: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images; GIFfrom Office Space GIFs)





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